Price continues to pull back after rejecting at the local range high of 87,000 and is now testing support at 82,000, a deviation below the local range low that mirrors the setup before September's breakout. The 30-day rolling VWAP has caught up to price as support, with single prints near 82,000 and just under 80,000 below. Perp CVD is falling with open interest flat, altcoins look to be slowing after a strong run, and the Fed minutes showed no urgency for an October hike.
🟡 October 8, 9:57am ET
Price continues to pull back after rejecting at the local range high of 87,000.
It is now testing support at 82,000, a deviation below the local range low.
Price has pulled back after a failed attempt to reclaim 87,000 this week and is now testing the prior range high as support.
This deviation below the local range low is the same pattern we saw before price broke out of its September range.
Waiting for price to confirm either a breakdown here or a reversal back to 87,000.
The 30-day rolling VWAP has caught up to price and is now being tested as support, as it converges with the May 5th swing high.
This is the second retest of the 30-day rolling VWAP in the last 30 days. The mid-September test held and was a springboard for the next leg higher.
Price is heading toward a single print in the late September weekly profile.
The next magnet below that sits just under 80,000, where another single print lines up with the value area high from the week of September 14.
A thick cluster of resting buy orders sits below 82,000.
Perp CVD is falling with open interest mostly flat, which suggests longs closing and new shorts opening are roughly offsetting each other here.
Crypto, and altcoins specifically, have been on a good run since late August.
But altcoins look to be slowing relative to the overall crypto market, setting up for a potential pullback, especially in some of the top performers with parabolic legs over the last few weeks.
Yesterday's Fed minutes showed no urgency for an October rate hike.
The door remains open to another hike before year-end, with FOMC participants watching the data between now and then. Futures markets price only a 20% chance of an October hike.
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Price has pulled back after a failed attempt to reclaim 87,000 this week and is now testing the prior range high as support, a deviation below the local range low. This is the same pattern seen before price broke out of its September range.
Several supports are converging. The 30-day rolling VWAP has caught up to price and is being tested alongside the May 5th swing high, and the mid-September test of that average was a springboard for the next leg higher. Below, a single print in the late September weekly profile sits near 82,000, with the next magnet just under 80,000 at the value area high from the week of September 14.
A thick cluster of resting buy orders sits below 82,000, while perp CVD falls with open interest flat as longs closing and new shorts opening roughly offset. Altcoins look to be slowing relative to the overall market, and the Fed minutes showed no urgency for an October hike. The question is whether this deviation reverses back toward 87,000 or confirms a breakdown.